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Steve Braune, Tank Industry Consultants on Projecting remaining THK of bottom plates

By: Steve Braune, Tank Industry Consultants 
Date: Saturday, February 12, 2005
Time: 12:00:00 AM

API-653 permits the use of probabilistic methods, but is silent on the technique. I am not aware of any published papers that would be useful to you. Several years ago I compared the results of MFL inspections (for eleven ASTs) with predictions of MRT using only spot UT data. Results were good enough to predict which bottom was in poor condition and which were in good condition. Unfortunately, the predicted MRT was not even close to correct. Although results were not useful for predicting remaining life, they were useful for priortization of tank bottom inspection. Other firms that have used statistical methods have reported similar conclusions. One can identify which tank bottoms are in good condition. How bad a tank bottom is cannot be predicted with confidence.



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